a letter is known to have come frmeither frm london or frm clifton . on d post mark only d 2 consecutive lrtters ON r legible wat is d chance dat it came frm london?
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2 Answers
11nice preoblem
involves Baye's theorem:
LET
E1: the letter is from LONDON
E2: Letter is from CLIFTON
P(E1)= P(E2)=1/2
Let
A: ON is legible
P(A/E1) = 2/5
P(A/E2) = 1/6
We need
P(E1/A) = \frac{P(E_1)P(A/E_1)}{P(E_1)P(A/E_1)+P(E_2)P(A/E_2)}
= 12/17
11PLs tell me if u don't understand any part of the solution.....
If u wanna be successful in Bayes' theorem problems, u've gotta love that theorem
